Fundamentals

‘From this day forward, it’s going to be only America First. America First’. These were the words of President Trump on inauguration day, January 20th, 2017. Fast forward seven years later, and we are a short couple months away from his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States.

I believe human rights and economic development are inextricably linked, especially for developing or emerging market nations. The United Kingdom saw political chaos under Brexit, but this would never put the rule of law, or basic governmental structures under threat of collapse. In contrast, dire economic situations can cause a breakdown in society and government, as shown in Haiti, sparked by fuel costs. Many African countries are politically fragile, with numerous factors, such as religion and geography, playing a role in perpetual economic struggle. Therefore, the United States has the potential to be a key player in promoting human rights, through economic development. My article will explain what the incoming Trump administration’s foreign policy with Africa will look like, with both positives and negatives.

Further implementation of tariffs on exports was a key campaign pledge of the Trump campaign, with President Trump himself touting the word Tariff as, ‘the most beautiful word in the dictionary’, in an interview with the Economic Club of Chicago. Sub-Saharan, emerging-market African countries have, for the most part, exported goods to the US tariff-free, due to The African Growth and Opportunity Act 2000. In his first term, President Trump announced he would let the Act expire on September 30th, 2025.

On top of this, an additional worry for African exporters will be the pledged universal 10% tariff on all goods entering the US from anywhere, which could decrease exports to the US market. South Africa, frequently dogged by riots, are the largest beneficiaries of the AGOA legislation. However, as ever with international trade and the effect on geopolitics, fears may be overblown, as the Brookings Institution estimates a ‘0.06%’ decrease on South African GDP, as goods’ exported, such as minerals and metal, do not fall under AGOA’s scope.

Will President Trump invest in Africa?

Besides from partial free trade to the US, the previous Biden Administration invested over $22bn in the 1,700km Lobito Corridor, a rail line between Angola and Zambia, enhancing trade access. Under his previous administration, President Trump did put into place, ‘Prosper Africa’. This initiative aided US companies wishing to invest in Africa, as well as the ‘Development Finance Corporation’, which funds African projects. Arguably, continuing these policies will be beneficial to Africa, as President Biden did, whilst also falling in line with the ‘America First’ foreign policy agenda. Once again, the geopolitical link is clear, as China’s growing influence in Africa likely necessitates a liberal democratic nation-state to counter them.

Often, however, international aid is urgently needed in the short-term, to assist in humanitarian relief. The US has donated $3.7bn in 2024, so far. During President Trump’s last administration, Congress prevented his proposals to slash foreign aid, but the Republican Trifecta in Congress may think differently this time. Furthermore, specifically, ‘Pepfar’ is a US initiative that helps fight HIV in Africa, but prior Republican opposition to the scheme may see this policy reversed. Economic development cannot occur if diseases are rampant across Africa, due to the plethora of consequences (e.g., reduced labour pool).

What will the impact on immigration be?

US emigration to Africa is negligible and not relevant here, but there could be an impact on individual Africans living in the US, illegally. President Trump’s main campaign pledge was a mass deportation of those illegally residing in the US, and the African contribution has grown enormously, up to an estimated 58,000. I have written further about increasing African flows to the US in an article in the UoN Lawyers Without Borders blog, but it is suffice to say African immigration to the US will decrease.

What is the impact on security?

Russia, even whilst at war with Ukraine, has invested funds and troops into Africa, notably through the Wagner Mercenary Group. This mercenary force has been supporting weak governments hit by terrorism and civil war, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. It is very likely, in an aim to charm Russian President Vladimir Putin to sign a deal ending the Ukraine war, President Trump will, at least initially, not engage with this situation. That said, historically, President Trump has supported African countries when needed. Former lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma told Nigerian news outlet the Vanguard, ‘Trump… ultimately approved the purchase of Tucano jets, allowing us to strengthen our defences’, in response to Boko Haram, when President Obama had denied this request.

Without speculating too much, President Trump is known to have an unorthodox foreign policy approach. So, for example, if faced with a request for help with the Sudan Civil War, the economic deal-focused approach may see a transactional relationship arise, whereby military support is provided in exchange for greater access for US companies. All things being equal, facilitation of investment is a strong way to end war.

With 23 out of the 28 poorest countries in the world, and with 35.5% of the African continent’s population estimated to be in extreme poverty (using the $1.90/day index), it is crucial the Trump Administration engage with Africa in a new way. The US is the guardian of liberal democracy worldwide, and the sheer enormity of the African continent shows how much untapped potential there is.

Making America Great Again is admirable, but Making Humanity Great Again is only possible with an African economic powerhouse, one to stand side-by-side with Europe, Asia, North America, and the rest of the world.

Editor: Leah Russon Watkins